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ECB Pricing Not Keen To Push Far Beyond Recent Terminal Anchor, In Line With Our Sources Piece

STIR

After an initial move higher surrounding the broader core global FI dynamics, ECB-dated OIS has faded, with core global FI markets at least off session cheaps, if not firmer on the day, while oil is comfortably lower and through Friday’s base.

  • That leaves ECB-dated OIS little changed on the day, with a 25bp hike essentially fully priced for this week’s meeting, along with ~30bp of additional tightening before terminal rate levels are reached.
  • That is only slightly more aggressive than the general outline provided in our policy team’s most recent ECB sources piece (see here for more: https://marketnews.com/mni-sources-ecb-seen-likely-hiking-twice-more) which was run on Friday.
  • Expect steer from wider markets to be at the fore pre-ECB meeting, with the Bank in its quiet period.
  • There will be more on the impending decision in our usual ECB preview, set to be published in the coming days.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-233.391+24.4
Jul-233.589+44.2
Sep-233.692+54.5
Oct-233.697+55.0
Dec-233.676+52.9
Jan-243.618+47.1
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

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