ECB Speak Sees Light Hawkish Pressure For UK STIRs, A Little Under 60bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

Light pressure for SONIA markets as EUR STIR implied rates drift higher in the wake of comments from ECB’s Schnabel.

• Contracts are flat to -4.0 as a result.
• BoE-dated OIS unwind some of the recent dovish move, but still price nearly 14bp of cuts through the next MPC meeting and ~57.5bp of easing through year end.
• Domestically, reports have suggested that Chancellor Hunt will point to the Conservative Party’s focus on further tax cuts if they retain power following the next election, as they continue to struggle in the polls.
• Comments from BoE’s Mann are due today (09:00).
• She will give the keynote speech at Economics Statistics Centre of Excellence Conference.
• Her speech will be entitled Economic Measurement 2024 ‘cost of capital: measurement and implications for business investment’.
• Mann may not say anything of note on monetary policy in her prepared remarks, but the Q&A may give her a chance to communicate any updates in her views.