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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessECB Terminal Pricing Showing Back Above 3.90%
The general travel of core global FI markets leaves ECB-dated OIS little changed to 3bp higher vs. closing levels, with terminal rate pricing just above 3.90% in deposit rate terms.
- This morning’s ECB speak has seen Nagel keep the option of a hike after the summer break on the table, while Vasle stressed that any such step is data-dependent after voicing his support for another hike in July. Elsewhere, Simkus also voiced his support for a July hike, also pushing back against any talk of rate cuts at the start of ’24.
- The higher for longer rates dynamic is becoming a focal point for markets when it comes to the ECB, with a July hike deemed likely by President Lagarde (near enough fully priced by markets), as she stressed the Bank’s “persistence” when it comes to fighting inflation.
- On that front, the latest BBG sources piece suggested that “European Central Bank officials expect a tough debate next month on whether another interest-rate hike at the following meeting, in September, will be necessary.”
- Meanwhile, RTRS sources noted that “European Central Bank policymakers began this week a debate on evening out the "corridor" between the ECB's three interest rates, in a first step towards an era in which money is scarcer.”
- In terms of ECB speak, Villeroy, Rehn, Centeno, Holzmann & Muller are all due to cross today, with the potential for plenty of unscheduled remarks also evident (as we have already seen).
| ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Hike Adjusted €STR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-23 | 3.620 | +22.3 |
| Sep-23 | 3.776 | +37.9 |
| Oct-23 | 3.827 | +43.0 |
| Dec-23 | 3.815 | +41.8 |
| Jan-24 | 3.774 | +37.7 |
| Mar-24 | 3.716 | +31.9 |
| Apr-24 | 3.638 | +24.1 |
Note that the above table assumes a 25bp adjustment vs. the most recent €STR overnight rate levels.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.