ECB: Weekly ECB Speak Wrap (Nov 11 – Nov 18)
The potential impact of US tariffs and the weak Eurozone growth outlook have once again been prevalent in the past week’s ECB-speak. Concerns around the negative growth impact of US trade policy prompted further dovish repricing in ECB-dated OIS, though short-end pressure this morning (Nov 18) has reversed a good portion of those moves. ECB-dated OIS currently price 139bps of easing through December 2025, down from ~145bps at Friday’s close but still above the 135bps seen on November 8.
Overall, the conclusions from the MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece on November 7 continue to hold: A 25bps cut is almost assured at the December meeting (consistent with market pricing), while the ECB is set to retain its meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach (consistent with Schnabel’s remarks on forward guidance).
In the following PDF, we provide a summary of ECB-speak from November 11 to November 18 and summarise commentary since the October meeting by speaker and topic: 241118 - Weekly ECB Speak Wrap.pdf