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ECI Confirms AHE Wage Growth Moderation In Q4

US DATA
  • Total employment cost index growth was a tenth softer than expected in Q4 at 0.97% Q/Q non-annualized (cons 1.1) after 1.25% in Q3.
  • Similar moderation if you look at just wages & salaries (1.04 from 1.32), but somewhat less pronounced for private industries (0.97 from 1.05, private wages & salaries at 1.03 from 1.17).
  • Private sector wages & salaries give the best comparison with AHE from monthly payrolls, and the easing to the slowest pace since 2Q21 left the two series consistent. It dispels compositional adjustments being behind total AHE growth slowing to 4.3% annualized in Q4 (softest since 1Q21) and closer to 3.5% annualized in December alone.

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