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ECI Growth Shows No Sign Of Further Moderation From Not Far Off 5% Annualized

US DATA
  • The ECI increased slightly stronger than expected at 1.16% Q/Q non-annualized (cons 1.1) after an also upward revised 1.10% Q/Q (initial 0.97%) in Q4.
  • Wages & salaries saw similar relative strength with 1.16% Q/Q after an upward revised 1.17% (initial 1.04%), with marginally more of an uptick in its private subcomponent at 1.21% Q/Q after 1.16% Q/Q.
  • In annualized terms, the 4.7% for total ECI is down from 5.5% in 1H22 but importantly unchanged from 2H22 (and private wages & salaries actually accelerated to 4.9% annualized vs 4.7% 2H22 av). This trend of stabilization rather than further moderation goes against the more pronounced easing in monthly average hourly earnings.

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