Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Economy Minister Sergio Massa retains a sizeable lead in political betting markets with just under three weeks to go until the 19 Nov presidential election second round. Data from electionbettingodds.com gives Massa - from the left-wing Peronist Homeland Union - a 69.3% implied probability of winning the presidency, with right-wing libertarian challenger Javier Milei on 30.2%. Massa's lead stands in stark contrast to the outlook ahead of the 22 October first round, with Milei entering that contest as the frontrunner, only for Massa to exceed expectations.
- Despite Argentina's triple-digit inflation and interest rates, escalating fuel shortages, and approximately two in five Argentinians living below the poverty line, the incumbent economy minister has emerged as favourite, with Milei's 'chainsaw' plans to dollarise the economy and enact massive gov't spending cuts seemingly scaring off swing voters.
- The fuel shortages, which began before the 22 Oct 1st round have worsened notably in recent days. AP: "Massa accused oil companies of holding onto stock amid speculation there would be an increase in prices surrounding the election, and said he would move to shut down crude oil exports if the situation was not normalized by Tuesday night.[...] Milei, meanwhile, said the shortages were a result of the government’s price controls. “Shortages and inflation are the direct consequences of the model defended by this government of criminals, with Minister Massa at the helm,” Milei wrote on social media.
Chart 1. Election Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com, Betfair, Smarkets, Polymarket, Predictit
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.