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Econ Projections May Not Show Enough "Pain"

FED

The Fed's latest GDP growth forecasts are weaker than widely expected, while the unemployment rate - though very flat over 2023-25 - shows perhaps a touch more weakness than had been expected.

  • Powell's likely to be asked about whether more "pain" will be required to get inflation back down to 2% (which isn't seen happening until 2025).
  • And somewhat oddly, core PCE seen persisting a little higher through 2025 than headline.

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The Fed's latest GDP growth forecasts are weaker than widely expected, while the unemployment rate - though very flat over 2023-25 - shows perhaps a touch more weakness than had been expected.

  • Powell's likely to be asked about whether more "pain" will be required to get inflation back down to 2% (which isn't seen happening until 2025).
  • And somewhat oddly, core PCE seen persisting a little higher through 2025 than headline.