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Economic Activity, Final GDP Prints, Trade Balance Data Due

MEXICO
  • USDMXN had a solid bounce amid yesterday’s turmoil across global markets. Rising just over 3% from Wednesday’s low print, the pair topped out just shy of 20.80, matching closely with the February highs.
  • The retracement in the dollar, alongside the rebound in global equity indices, has acted as a renewed tailwind for the peso with USDMXN back down to 20.45, -0.55% for the session.
  • 20.9141 remains the key resistance and on the downside, clearance of 20.1577 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend, opening 20.1196, Oct 26 low ahead of the 20.00 handle.
  • Mexico’s final GDP data is expected to show a 0.1% q/q decline, in line with preliminary data, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey. All data 1200GMT/0700ET unless stated:
    • Q4 GDP SA QoQ, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
    • Q4 GDP NSA YoY, est. 1.0%, prior 0.9%
    • Q4 GDP Nominal YoY, est. 8.7%, prior 11.3%
    • Dec. Economic Activity IGAE M/m, est. 1.00%, prior 0.35%
    • Dec. Economic Activity IGAE Y/y, est. 1.26%, prior 1.66%
    • Jan. Revised Trade Balance, est. -$3.83b, prior $590.3m
    • Q4 Current Account Balance, est. $1.9b, prior -$4.07b (1500GMT/1000ET)
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