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Economic Risks Keep Puts at Premium

OIL OPTIONS

Brent put skew continues to trend lower as the market weighs the impact of economic risks on global oil demand.

  • The spread between 25 delta puts and 25 delta calls has gradually moved in favour of the downside since the end of February. The correction back towards calls last week proved to be short lived with outright crude prices continuing to fall this week.
  • Aug22 Brent puts are 2.6% over calls and Dec22 puts are approximately 4% over. The put skew is even greater in 2023 with Mar23 7.5% over calls and Dec23 nearly 10% over.
  • ATM volatility is gradually ticking back up with high uncertainty over both supply and demand driving large daily price swings. Implied and 30d historic vols are up over 52% having briefly fallen below 40% at the end of June.

Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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