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Economist Jacob Nell at Morgan Stanley......>

UK VIEW
UK VIEW: Economist Jacob Nell at Morgan Stanley expects there to be an "outline"
of a transitional deal "soon" to help a smooth Brexit process, however, see
growth slowing down in the second half of 2018 as the transitional deal
"requires closing" a trade deal which they expect "to go to the wire."
- Nell expects the UK to "pragmatically" accept EU obligation to "ensure an
orderly withdrawal" but agreement by March EU council meeting "will not prove
easy" but "a deal this spring looks likely".
- Nell goes on to say that a transitional agreement does not "solve" Brexit
uncertainty though due to 3 reasons: 1) Transitional deal will only become
"binding" when everything is agreed including a trade deal with risks that
"talks break down" leading to the UK leaving the EU in March 2019 with a
transitional deal. 2) "Perceived risk that talks break down will rise in the
endgame". 3) Uncertainty around UK politics, leading to "sharp slowdown in
investment as business make contingency plans, defer decision and favour non-UK
locations".

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