OIL: Oil Edges Higher Amid Geopolitical Risks in Producing Countries

Crude prices are extending gains from last week amid geopolitical risks in producing countries of Russian and the Middle East while the market waits for clarity of future OPEC+ output. Improved economic indicators from the U.S. and China helped support crude last week towards the high end of the monthly range.

• Iran’s President Raisi and the foreign minister died in a helicopter crash. There is concern that his death could leave a power vacuum and destabilise the world’s third largest oil producer, but Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that there “won’t be any disruption to the country’s affairs”.
  • Brent JUL 24 up 0.5% at 84.37$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24 up 0.3% at 80.33$/bbl
  • Gasoil JUN 24 up 0.4% at 765.25$/mt
  • Brent JUL 24-AUG 24 down 0.03$/bbl at 0.32$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.06$/bbl at 4.55$/bbl
• Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman postponed his visit to Japan citing health issue with King Salman.
• Russian said Ukraine carried out another 62 drone attacks on Sunday forcing the 80kbd Slavyansk refinery in southern Russia to halt operations.
• A China bound oil tanker was hit by Houthis off the coast of Yemen on Saturday.
• Money managers cut net long crude positions again last week, falling to the least bullish since January.
• Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are slightly softer today after gains last week boosted by U.S. macro and EIA data showing improving demand. Gasoline exports from China fell to the lowest since 2015 in April amid refinery maintenance, low commercial inventories and before new export quotas were announced.
  • US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 27.94$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0.4$/bbl at 24.19$/bbl