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Economists Lower Y-E Rate Forecast To 4.75%, USDCLP Bull leg Extends

CHILE
  • Despite the much lower-than-expected inflation data earlier this week, economists surveyed by the central bank are expecting the pace of rate cuts to remain at 75bp in January. The survey also sees another 75bp cut in April and has lowered the year-end rate expectation to 4.75% from 5.00%. Inflation expectations for both year-end 2024 and 2025 remain at 3.0%. At yesterday’s announcement of Claudio Soto as the newest BCCh board member, Finance Minister Mario Marcel also told reporters that inflation is likely to converge to target sooner than previously expected.
  • The prospect of larger rate cuts this week has weighed on the peso, with USDCLP’s most recent bull leg extending on Tuesday. The break of resistance at 902.28, the Dec 26 high, strengthens a short-term bullish condition and opens 924.67, the Nov 13 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for an extension towards 955.00, the Oct 16 high.
  • According to Diario Financiero, the government have launched a reform (Framework Law of Sector Authorisations) to reduce the start-up times for investment projects. The report notes that in the case of a highly complex hospital project, it is estimated that processing could decrease by 32%, while for large mining projects the time would decrease by 45% and in food consumption establishments it could be up to 69% quicker.
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