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LATAM: Ecuador Dollar Bonds Under Pressure As Noboa Cracks Down On Gang Violence

LATAM
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  • Ecuador’s dollar bonds underperformed on Monday amid a spike in violence, which has questioned support for President Noboa ahead of the election run-off next month and raised doubts about the timing of the next tranche of IMF funding.
  • On Friday, President Noboa said that soldiers and police cracking down on violence in a Guayaquil neighbourhood, following a gang massacre, would receive presidential pardons if needed, so that they could act without fear of retaliation.
  • The nation is set for the second review of its deal with the IMF on March 15. Local media report that the IMF will likely place the next $414mn disbursement on hold until after the April 13 election runoff.
  • Separately, consumer prices rose by just 0.09% m/m in February, bringing the annual headline inflation down to a low 0.25% y/y. Excluding electricity, which has been impacted by significant subsidies after the power outages of late-2024, inflation edged down by 1bp to 1.75% y/y.
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  • Ecuador’s dollar bonds underperformed on Monday amid a spike in violence, which has questioned support for President Noboa ahead of the election run-off next month and raised doubts about the timing of the next tranche of IMF funding.
  • On Friday, President Noboa said that soldiers and police cracking down on violence in a Guayaquil neighbourhood, following a gang massacre, would receive presidential pardons if needed, so that they could act without fear of retaliation.
  • The nation is set for the second review of its deal with the IMF on March 15. Local media report that the IMF will likely place the next $414mn disbursement on hold until after the April 13 election runoff.
  • Separately, consumer prices rose by just 0.09% m/m in February, bringing the annual headline inflation down to a low 0.25% y/y. Excluding electricity, which has been impacted by significant subsidies after the power outages of late-2024, inflation edged down by 1bp to 1.75% y/y.