ECUADOR-Gang-Related Violence Risks Political & Regional Instability

Ecuador faces a period of significant political instability that could have a knock-on impact the regional security outlook. While violence related to the proliferation of narco cartels in Ecuador has been prevalent in recent months (it was the main issue in the 2023 presidential election campaign), the last few days have seen a major uptick in violence.

• The series of incidents includes: Adolfo 'Fito' Macías - head of the Los Choneros gang - escaping prison on 7 Jan; armed gang members storming a TV station live on air; prisons having become in-effect gang controlled; and reports on 9 Jan of "Explosions, burning vehicles, looting and gunfire [...] across the country,"
• The unrest could have spillover effects on Ecuador's neighbours. The Peruvian gov't has declared an emergency along its northern border, with anincreased police presencedispatched to the frontier.
• Reuters noted, "other alarmed South American nations Brazil, Colombia and Chile all expressed support for Noboa's government. China, a major investor in Ecuador, closed its embassy and consulates until further notice."
• President Noboa, in office since Nov 23, faces a major task in restoring order. Should the security situation remain perilous, Noboa's tenure could prove short given that the next election takes place in early 2025.
• A hardline approach presents two prominent outcomes; a lengthy and likely bloody conflict between security services and gangs, mirroring Mexico's long-running narco wars, or a brutal but effective crackdown that could draw the attention of human rights groups, as seen in El Salvador.