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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
LATAM
Opinion polling in the run-up to the 15 October presidential election second round shows left-wing correista candidate Luisa González neck-and-neck with her pro-business liberal opponent Daniel Noboa. The two candidates offer contrasting visions for their presidencies: González a more state interventionist programme heavily influenced by exiled former president Rafael Correa, Noboa a more market-oriented policy platform.
- Nevertheless, it should be noted that whoever wins, they will only serve two years in office until the next election. Due to the manner of the dissolution of Congress and resignation by outgoing President Guillermo Lasso, the incomer will serve out the remainder of Lasso's term rather than starting their own. This is set to limit the new administration's ability to enact significant reform before they begin campaigning for the 2025 vote.
- The new president will likely also find themselves constrained by a fragmented Congress set to have Correa's Revolución Ciudadana as the largest party, but well short of a majority. Centrist parties are set to hold the balance of power, potentially limiting González's more leftist policy proposals should she win.
- The notable regional impact could come in the form of the security outlook. Ecuador has experienced significant cartel-related violence in recent years, posing a risk to broader security in the area. Both candidates have pledged to improve the situation, but it remains to be seen whether either will gain the requisite Congressional support to do so.
Chart 1. Presidential Election Opinion Polling, %
Source: Negocios & Estratégias, Omar Maluk, NEO Consulta, Comunicaliza, Dado Duro EC, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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