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Edges Lower, US Inventory Numbers Eyed Later

OIL

Brent is lower, currently sitting not too far from lows for the week. We were last around $79.35/bbl. We remain comfortably within recent ranges, with resistance at $81.74 (20-day EMA) and support at $77.61 (Jan 5 low). WTI is following a similar trajectory, last around $74.35/bbl.

  • Sentiment may have been weighed by the surge in US oil inventories reported by the API survey during Tuesday's US session. The EIA numbers later today in the US will likely carry more weight. If they confirm a strong inventory build it may weigh more on current spot momentum.
  • Prompt spreads continue to signal a comfortable supply backdrop, although the sell-side consensus remains bullish in terms of the 2023 oil outlook. ING was the latest to join the bullish ranks, forecasting Brent crude will average more than $100/bbl in 2023.
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