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EGB/Gilt: Mixed Trading Amid Ukraine Crisis Uncertainty

BOND SUMMARY

EGBs have traded mixed this morning amid heightened uncertainty over the wider consequences of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

  • Russian forces are closing in on Kyiv with the Ukrainian president alleging that he is on a kill list, which follows previous warnings from a senior US defense official that President Putin plans to 'decapitate' the government In Ukraine.
  • Gilts have rallied through the morning with the curve bull steepening. Cash yields are 2-7bp lower on the day with the 2s30s spread 4bp wider.
  • Bunds initially sold off before recovering losses and now trade a touch below yesterday's closing levels.
  • OATs similarly recovered earlier losses with the curve flattening 2bp.
  • BTPs have firmed through the morning with yields 1-3bp lower across much of the curve.
  • There was a slew of European data this morning which took a back seat in light of ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The final Q4 GDP print for Germany came in stronger than the previous estimates (-0.3% Q/Q vs -0.7% & 1.8% Y/Y vs 1.4%). The preliminary French CIP estimate for February surprised higher (4.1% Y/Y vs 3.7% consenssus)
  • Supply this morning came from the UK (UKTBs, GBP2bn), Italy (BTP/CCTeu, EUR8.25bn)
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