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EGB/Gilt- A busy session

BONDS
  • EGBs and Bund are still deep in the red, with the contracts taking their cue from the open, following the Hawk Fed yesterday.
  • The Bank of England delivered its expected 75bps hike to 3%.
  • During the presser, Bailey said that his best guess is that the terminal rate is closer to a constant rate of 3.00% rather than the curve that peaks at 5.2%.
  • "Our best view of what the rate should be, given the circumstances and the evidence we have to date is nearer to the constant rate curve than the market curve is to the constant rate curve currently."
  • EGBs, Bund, and Gilt are now off their lows, and mostly on short cover, and squaring as European desks heads towards the later part of the session, with US NFP in mind for tomorrow.
  • Peripheral spreads are all tighter, with Greece, Portugal, Italy leading, all by around 2/2.2bps.
  • Gilt/Bund spread continues to tighten, and now approaching the 120.00bps figure.
  • A clear break through the latter, opens to 113.88bps, the 76.4% retrace of the May/Sep rally.
  • Looking ahead, BoE Mann speaks later, but attention turns to the US NFP and earnings tomorrow.

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