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EGB/Gilt - A fast market afternoon session

BONDS
  • A fast market afternoon session for EGBs, Bund and rate markets.US PCE missed expectation, which suggest deflation.
  • Futures initially rallied but very quickly reversed following a Reuters source piece:
  • " Some ECB policymakers want 75 basis point hike discussed in Sept". sources says.
  • Euribor strip fell some 15.5 ticks, but are just off the lows at the time of typing.
  • Futures saw further downside traction after Powell deemed hawkish: "the Fed needs to get restrictive and STAY restrictive for an extended period of time."
  • At the time of typing, Some squaring and profit taking see some bounce in Equities, Govies and Rates, as EU desk head towards the weekend.
  • Also a Bank Holiday Monday for UK desks.
  • BTP/Bund is back to 9.2bps wider and testing the August high at 231bps, now at 230.7bps.
  • Gilt future outperform Bund, following the ECB story, and Gilt/Bund continues to tighten, after it tested close to the March and 2022 high this week, the spread is now at 119.00bps.
  • Looking ahead to next week, a week packed with data.
  • Of note: Australia retail sales, Sweden GDP (2nd)/Retail sales (mon).
  • German regional/National CPI, Czech GDP (prelim), Spain prelim CPI, US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (tue).
  • French prelim CPI/GDP (final), EU prelim CPI, US ADP, MNI Chic PMI, Canadian GDP (wed)
  • SW/TU/PD/SZ/SP/FR/GE/EU/UK/US manufacturing PMIs, Swiss CPI, ISM Manufacturing (thu).
  • EU PPI, US NFP, AHE, Factory orders, Durable goods (final) (fri)
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