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EGB/Gilt: Digesting Policy Shifts

BOND SUMMARY

Gilts have traded weaker and EGBs have firmed in the aftermath of yesterday's policy meetings. Equities are broadly lower across the board while European FX trades weaker against the dollar.

  • Gilt yields are now 1-2bp higher on the day with the longer end of the curve slightly underperforming.
  • Following an ongoing scandal over an alleged party at 10 Downing St in which Covid rules were not followed, the ruling UK Conservative party lost a by-election to the Lib Dems in North Shropshire in what was a Tory stronghold for nearly 200 years.
  • UK retail sales data came in stronger than expected for November (ex auto fuel: 2.7% Y/Y vs 2.3% expected.
  • The bund curve has bull flattened with the 2s30s spread 2bp narrower.
  • The OAT curve has similarly flattened 2bp
  • BTP cash yields are 2-3bp lower with the belly of the curve marginally outperforming on the day.
  • Supply this morning came from the UK (UKTBs, GBP2bn) and Belgium (ORI Facility, EUR504mn).
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