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EGB/Gilt: Markets Looking For Sign Of Potential 50bp ECB Hike

BOND SUMMARY

Euro area government bonds have traded firmer this morning ahead of the ECB meeting. Equities are commodities are broadly lower, while FX performance has been mixed on the day.

  • The ECB's action plan has been well telegraphed by this point: net purchases under the APP will conclude in early July, setting the stage for a hike at the 21 July meeting. Any material deviation from this announcement constitutes a risk.
  • The balance of risks are tilted in a hawkish direction, with markets focused on any signals of a potential 50bp, rather than 25bp, policy rate hike.
  • Bunds have had a choppy start to the session and now trade firmer on the day with yields broadly 1-2bp lower. and the curve trading close to flat overall.
  • OAT yields are down 2-3bp and trading near the lows of the day.
  • BTPs have outperformed core EGBs with yields down 2-4bp and with the belly of the curve leading the way.
  • Gilts have weakened slightly across the curve, but lack strong direction.
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