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EGB/Gilt: Risk-Off Shift

BOND SUMMARY

European government bonds have rallied this morning while equities and commodities have broadly traded lower.

  • Gilts opened higher and have continued grinding out gains through the morning, particularly at the longer end. Cash yields are 9-12bp lower on the day with the curve bull flattening.
  • Bund yields are now down 6-10bp on the day.
  • The OAT curve has bull flattened with the 2s30s spread narrowing 6bp.
  • BTPs have underperformed core EGBs with yields down 2-4bp.
  • Global geopolitical tension has increased on the back of the planned visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei. News reports indicate that Chinese fighter jets flew near to the median line which divides the Taiwan Strait
  • The European data slate was light this morning. Data published by Nationwide show UK house prices increasing 11.0% Y/Y in July, below consensus estimates (11.4%) but still marking an acceleration from the previous month.
  • Supply this morning came from the UK (Gilt, GBP2.75bn), Belgium (TCs, EUR805mn) and the ESM (Bills, EUR1.099bn).

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