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EGB Supply For W/C Mar 28, 2022

MNI (London)

The EFSF, Italy and Belgium are all due to sell bonds this week for an estimated E9.5bln. The EU has already come to market, issuing E2.5bln. We look for gross nominal issuance of E12.0bln, down from E35.2bln last week.

  • The EU kicked off issuance for the week yesterday, reopening E2.498bln of the 7-year 0% Oct-28 EU NGEU bond (ISIN: EU000A3KWCF4) via auction.
  • The EFSF issued a mandate for a syndication of a new Sep-28 bond to take place in the "near future", we expect the transaction to take place today with a size of E2-4bln. As the EFSF has moved away from quarterly issuance updates to a more flexible annual issuance target, it is harder to have a high conviction on transaction sizes.
  • On Wednesday, Italy will come to the market to sell up to E6.5bln of BTP. It will reopen the 5-year 1.10% Apr-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005484552 ) for E2.5-3.0bln and the 10-year 0.95% Jun-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005466013 ) for E3.0-3.5bln. As we had expected, the CCTeu auction is cancelled following the recent syndication.
  • Issuance for the week will conclude on Friday with Belgium holding an ORI facility operation for up to E500mln. Details will be confirmed on Thursday afternoon.
NET NOMINAL FLOWS: There are two notable upcoming redemptions: a Belgian OLO originally issued as in 2006 with a 15-year maturity for E12.9bln as well as a formerly 5-year Italian BTP for E16.7bln. Coupon payments are expected to come in at E5.1bln (with E4.2bln from Finland). This would leave net estimated net flows for the week at negative E22.6bln (down from positive E31.5bln last week).

For a calendar of all announced EGB/EU/ESM/EFSF auctions see the MNI EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar here.

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