EGB Supply - W/C 15 July, 2024 (2/2)

• Spain will look to hold a Bono/Olbi auction on Thursday. On offer will be the 1.25% Oct-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012G34), the on-the-run 10-year 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N35) and the 0.85% Jul-37 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012I24). The auction size will be confirmed on Monday but we think we will probably see a return to E4.5-5.5bln auction target ranges (after the previous E5-6bln range earlier this month when the new 7-year Obli was launched).
• France on Thursday 18 July will then look to hold an MT OAT auction with E9.5-11.5bln on offer – larger than seen last month in the midst of the election campaign, but smaller than the E12.0-12.5bln upper limits seen through the rest of 2024. On offer will be both on-the-run issues: the 3-year 2.50% Sep-27 OAT (ISIN: FR001400NBC6) and the 5-year 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68) alongside the off-the-run 1.00% May-27 OAT (ISIN: FR0013250560) and the 2.00% Nov-32 OAT (ISIN: FR001400BKZ3).
• France will then return later in the day to hold an IL OAT auction with E1.75-2.5bln on offer of the following: the 0.10% Mar-28 OATi (ISIN: FR0013238268), the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The week ahead sees two large redemptions totalling E29.2bln: E11.8bln from a formerly 5-year Austrian RAGB and E17.4bln of a formerly 10-year Dutch DSL. Coupon payments for the week are E3.5bln, of which E1.4bln are Dutch, E0.9bln are Italian, E0.7bln are Austrian, E0.2bln are Greek and E0.2bln are from the EFSF. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E2.5bln versus positive E25.1bln this week.

For a recap of this week's issuance and more details on the next two weeks see the MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix here.