EGB Supply W/C 2 January, 2023

Germany and France are both due to hold auctions this week with syndications from Austria and Slovenia announced for the near future. MNI pencils in an estimated gross nominal issuance of E23.0bln from announced operations.

• Germany will kick off the auction calendar for 2023 this morning with E5bln of the 2.20% Dec-24 Schatz (ISIN: DE0001104909) on offer.
• Austria released a mandate to launch a new 10-year Feb-33 RAGB in the “near future”. MNI expects the transaction to take place today with a size of E4-5bln.
• Slovenia held investor calls yesterday concerning a dual-tranche syndication to launch a new 10-year sustainability bond and a tap of the 3.125% Aug-45 SLOREP. The transaction could come as soon as today and MNI pencils in a transaction size of E1.0-1.5bln. We had noted last week that we thought a Slovenian syndication was likely this week.
• Tomorrow, France will look to sell E10.5-12.0bln of LT OATs. On offer will be the 2.00% Nov-32 OAT (ISIN: FR001400BKZ3), the 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62), the 0.75% May-53 OAT (ISIN: FR0014004J31) and the 1.75% May-66 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154028).
• We still see a decent chance that we will see syndications this week from Italy and Ireland (probably 10-year). We also look for syndications from Belgium (10-year), the EFSF, Portugal and Spain (10-year) in the first half of January, potentially also as early as next week.
• Portugal and Spain are also likely to release their 2023 funding plans this week.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: This week will see no redemptions and E5.2bln of coupon payments (of which E4.8bln are German and E0.4bln Italian). With estimated issuance of E23.0bln we look for net flows of E17.8bln this week.

For more see the PDF here:

EZ230104.pdf