EGB Supply – W/C 27 May, 2024

Germany, Italy and Finland are all still due to hold auctions this week, while Spain will issue a new 10-year benchmark via syndication. The EU, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany have already come to the market this week. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E40.4bln, up from E26.7bln last week, but net flows will turn negative given the scale of redemptions due.

• Spain announced a mandate to launch a new 10-year Obli in the “near future” (we expect today) with a maturity of 31 October 2034. The timing of the syndication is earlier than last year, but we had expected this due to strong primary demand, Spanish redemptions and also due to participants wanting to lock in rates ahead of the first ECB cut. We look for a E10-15bln transaction size.
• Germany will return to the market this morning to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) alongside E1.5bln of the 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009).
• Italy will return to the market tomorrow with a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. On offer will be E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 3.35% Jul-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584849), E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.85% Dec-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005519787), E3.0-3.5bln of the on-the-run 3.85% Jul-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584856), E0.75-1.0bln of the 1.05% Apr-32 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005594467) and E0.75-1.0bln of the 0.65% Apr-29 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005451361).
• Finland will conclude issuance for the month, also tomorrow, with up to E400mln available through its ORI Facility.
• Belgium opened its books for its latest retail -only State Bond (Bons d’État) subscription on Friday 24 May. Books will remain open until Monday 3 June inclusive. On offer will be a 1-year 3.20% Jun-25 issue (ISIN: BE3871296260) and an 8-year 2.80% Jun-32 issue (ISIN: BE3871297276).

For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week's supply see the PDF here:

EZ240529.pdf