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EGB/UST: Higher on Russian news; FOMC now in focus

BONDS
  • Putin's speech earlier that announced a partial mobilization (and in effect solidified the view that Russia was in the Ukraine war for the long haul) saw core fixed income move higher. EGBs outperformed USTs due to the potential knock-on effects of further disruption to gas supplies, but are off their highs of the day now. Bund futures reached a high of 141.98 and have now retraced around 50% of the move higher this morning.
  • Focus later today will turn to the Fed decision. Markets are pricing in around 79bp at the time of writing for today's meeting with a peak of 212bp of hikes expected by March. With changes to the statement likely to be limited, immediate focus will be on the Dot Plot’s end-2022 median rate forecast and the 2023 “terminal” rate, for which sell-side expectations center on 3.9% and 4.2%, respectively. MNI sees a flatter Fed funds rate “Dot Plot” than consensus, though risks to the 2023 Dot lie to the upside of 4.1%. For the full MNI Fed Preview click here.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-8+ today at 114-03+ with 10y UST yields down -2.2bp at 3.542% and 2y yields down -1.7bp at 3.951%.Bund futures are up 0.72 today at 141.42 with 10y Bund yields down -4.3bp at 1.879% and Schatz yields down -2.1bp at 1.678%.
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