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EGBS: Bunds Fully Retrace Morning Selloff

EGBS
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Bunds have rallied strongly over the last ~40 minutes on the back of softer-than-expected US consumer confidence data and ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.

  • Bund futures are now +29 ticks today at 134.79, fully recovering from this morning’s lows of 134.23.
  • Outperformance in EUR STIRs – which began following yesterday’s weak flash PMIs - continue to pull short-end yields lower, with cash curves bull steepening.
  • ECB-dated OIS price a ~60% implied probability of a 25bp cut in October, up from 20% at the start of this week.
  • Pricing for today’s EUR IG deals continue to filter through, though Spain’s 2036 linker syndication is yet to price at typing.
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Bunds have rallied strongly over the last ~40 minutes on the back of softer-than-expected US consumer confidence data and ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.

  • Bund futures are now +29 ticks today at 134.79, fully recovering from this morning’s lows of 134.23.
  • Outperformance in EUR STIRs – which began following yesterday’s weak flash PMIs - continue to pull short-end yields lower, with cash curves bull steepening.
  • ECB-dated OIS price a ~60% implied probability of a 25bp cut in October, up from 20% at the start of this week.
  • Pricing for today’s EUR IG deals continue to filter through, though Spain’s 2036 linker syndication is yet to price at typing.