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EGBS: EGBs Widen Vs. Germany, Idiosyncratic Matters & Equity Downtick Eyed

EGBS
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German cash curve twist steepens, yields -2bp to +2bp. Bund futures stick within the narrow 20-tick range established around the old futures open.

  • EGB spreads to Bunds 0.5-2.0bp wider, France, Spain & Greece widen the most.
  • Light headwinds for European equities probably aiding that move.
  • Elsewhere, Italy’s multi-year fiscal plan noted that government debt/GDP will only start falling from 2027 despite the country’s positive fiscal trend. This is likely factoring into the early widening in BTPs. BTP/Bunds ~133bp.
  • No tailwinds for OATs after French media suggested that France is considering a temporary tax on companies generating over EUR1bn in revenue and a tax on stock buybacks as it looks to address its well-documented fiscal issues. PM Barnier will speak tomorrow. OAT/Bunds ~80bp.
  • No meaningful underperformance for RAGBs (+0.5bp vs. Bunds) following the outcome of the Austrian election. Our political risk team will provide more colour on that matter throughout the day. The country’s political parties pledged to block the far-right from governing after it attained the largest number of votes but fell short of a majority.
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German cash curve twist steepens, yields -2bp to +2bp. Bund futures stick within the narrow 20-tick range established around the old futures open.

  • EGB spreads to Bunds 0.5-2.0bp wider, France, Spain & Greece widen the most.
  • Light headwinds for European equities probably aiding that move.
  • Elsewhere, Italy’s multi-year fiscal plan noted that government debt/GDP will only start falling from 2027 despite the country’s positive fiscal trend. This is likely factoring into the early widening in BTPs. BTP/Bunds ~133bp.
  • No tailwinds for OATs after French media suggested that France is considering a temporary tax on companies generating over EUR1bn in revenue and a tax on stock buybacks as it looks to address its well-documented fiscal issues. PM Barnier will speak tomorrow. OAT/Bunds ~80bp.
  • No meaningful underperformance for RAGBs (+0.5bp vs. Bunds) following the outcome of the Austrian election. Our political risk team will provide more colour on that matter throughout the day. The country’s political parties pledged to block the far-right from governing after it attained the largest number of votes but fell short of a majority.