April 30, 2024 17:24 GMT
EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Broad Weakness As Data Pares Implied ECB/BoE Cuts
BONDS
European yields rose sharply Tuesday as data pointed to fewer 2024 BoE/ECB rate cuts.
- While French and Dutch April inflation out early in the session were largely in line with expectations, the Eurozone-wide report saw slight upside surprises on both core and services HICP while GDP was above-expected, putting pressure on core FI.
- Stronger-than-expected US employment cost data and latterly a jump in MNI Chicago PMI prices paid saw Treasuries drag Bunds and Gilts down further in the afternoon.
- A pullback in oil prices and equities helped EGBs/Gilts find a floor toward the cash close.
- On the day, ECB 2024 cut pricing was pared 5bp to 66bp; BoE by 6bp to 41bp.
- Bunds underperformed Gilts, with the German curve bear flattening and the UK's bear steepening. Periphery EGB spreads widened modestly.
- Wednesday's calendar sees the US Federal Reserve decision featuring, but European trade will be limited due to the May Day holiday.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 7.2bps at 3.034%, 5-Yr is up 6.8bps at 2.616%, 10-Yr is up 5.2bps at 2.584%, and 30-Yr is up 2.6bps at 2.69%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 5.2bps at 4.506%, 5-Yr is up 4.8bps at 4.251%, 10-Yr is up 5.5bps at 4.347%, and 30-Yr is up 4.1bps at 4.787%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.9bps at 133.3bps / Spanish bond down 0.1bps at 77bps
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