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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Broad Weakness As Data Pares Implied ECB/BoE Cuts

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European yields rose sharply Tuesday as data pointed to fewer 2024 BoE/ECB rate cuts.

  • While French and Dutch April inflation out early in the session were largely in line with expectations, the Eurozone-wide report saw slight upside surprises on both core and services HICP while GDP was above-expected, putting pressure on core FI.
  • Stronger-than-expected US employment cost data and latterly a jump in MNI Chicago PMI prices paid saw Treasuries drag Bunds and Gilts down further in the afternoon.
  • A pullback in oil prices and equities helped EGBs/Gilts find a floor toward the cash close.
  • On the day, ECB 2024 cut pricing was pared 5bp to 66bp; BoE by 6bp to 41bp.
  • Bunds underperformed Gilts, with the German curve bear flattening and the UK's bear steepening. Periphery EGB spreads widened modestly.
  • Wednesday's calendar sees the US Federal Reserve decision featuring, but European trade will be limited due to the May Day holiday.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

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European yields rose sharply Tuesday as data pointed to fewer 2024 BoE/ECB rate cuts.

  • While French and Dutch April inflation out early in the session were largely in line with expectations, the Eurozone-wide report saw slight upside surprises on both core and services HICP while GDP was above-expected, putting pressure on core FI.
  • Stronger-than-expected US employment cost data and latterly a jump in MNI Chicago PMI prices paid saw Treasuries drag Bunds and Gilts down further in the afternoon.
  • A pullback in oil prices and equities helped EGBs/Gilts find a floor toward the cash close.
  • On the day, ECB 2024 cut pricing was pared 5bp to 66bp; BoE by 6bp to 41bp.
  • Bunds underperformed Gilts, with the German curve bear flattening and the UK's bear steepening. Periphery EGB spreads widened modestly.
  • Wednesday's calendar sees the US Federal Reserve decision featuring, but European trade will be limited due to the May Day holiday.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

Keep reading...Show less