January 13, 2025 17:42 GMT
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Underperform, Sell-Off Fades
BONDS
Gilts underperformed Bunds and broader EGBs Monday, with pronounced bear flattening in the UK curve.
- Bonds remained under pressure overnight to start the week's trade, with Gilt and Bund yields nearing lastweek's multi-month and in some cases multi-year highs as the hawkish implications of Friday's solid US employment report continued to reverberate.
- The sell-off partially unwound over the course of the session, as dollar gains and equity losses consolidated with an eye on US and UK CPI Wednesday.
- The UK curve bear flattened, with Germany's bear steepening.
- Periphery EGB spreads to Bunds widened, with GGBs weakest as Greece announced a 10Y mandate likely to take place Tuesday (expectations had been it would occur next week).
- Tuesday's data calendar is largely second tier (Italian industrial production), though we get multiple central bank speakers including ECB's Lane and Holzmann, and BOE's Breeden.
- Also of note given fiscal considerations, new French PM Bayrou gives a key policy speech Tuesday afternoon.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.9bps at 2.293%, 5-Yr is up 1.7bps at 2.396%, 10-Yr is up 1.8bps at 2.613%, and 30-Yr is up 2bps at 2.81%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 6.2bps at 4.601%, 5-Yr is up 5.5bps at 4.602%, 10-Yr is up 4.7bps at 4.885%, and 30-Yr is up 3.2bps at 5.438%.
- Italian BTP spread up 3.6bps at 121bps / Greek up 4.1bps at 86bps
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