May 17, 2024 16:48 GMT
EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Pullback Continues
BONDS
Friday's trade closely mirrored the prior session's, with initial gains fading steadily over the rest of the day.
- ECB's Schnabel catalysed a bearish tone for core FI with her comment reported overnight that a July rate cut looked unlikely based on data to this point.
- Otherwise the main theme was a continued reconsideration of Wednesday's seemingly dovish US inflation and retail sales data, with both Bund and Gilt yields having now risen back above levels just prior to those releases. 2024 ECB / BoE implied cut pricings were pared by around 3bp apiece on the day.
- The calendar was limited in terms of speakers and data - final April Eurozone HICP was in line, with the ECB's calculated underlying inflation measures showing moderation.
- The German curve bear flattened, with the UK's bear steepening.
- Periphery EGB spreads tightened a touch, with Portugal (Moody's) and Spain (Fitch) due for ratings reviews after the close.
- Next week's calendar includes UK CPI data and an appearance by BoE's Bailey, along with flash May PMIs.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 5.9bps at 2.986%, 5-Yr is up 6.1bps at 2.561%, 10-Yr is up 5.5bps at 2.515%, and 30-Yr is up 4.7bps at 2.653%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.6bps at 4.31%, 5-Yr is up 4.3bps at 4.009%, 10-Yr is up 4.8bps at 4.127%, and 30-Yr is up 4.1bps at 4.6%.
- Italian BTP spread down 0.1bps at 129.9bps / Spanish down 0.2bps at 75.7bps
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