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/EGBS: SocGen analysts eyed US,....>

US TSYS/RESEARCH
US TSYS/RESEARCH: /EGBS: SocGen analysts eyed US, BOE and ECB policy directions
and expected there will be "no ECB tightening before January; no BoE hike," and
the "next FOMC hike in December (that'd be a surprise)." They also expected that
the Fed's balance sheet "SOMA run-off is starting in October." They add there is
a "potential for upbeat macro data to surprise into year-end" and "conditional
covering." 
- Thus they urge to "trade range" in Tsys "tactically with a bearish bias. Enter
Treasury shorts in the belly of the curve on dips into the bottom end of the
range (2.25% and below on 10-year Treasury)," and take "profits on drifts into
the upper end (2.45%- and above on 10-year Treasury)." (Currently, the 10-year
note is at 2.317%.)

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