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EIA Lowered Brent Price Forecast to 92$/bbl in STEO

OIL

EIA lower their forecast for the 2023 average Brent price to 92$/bbl down from the previous estimate of 95$/bbl due to a contracting US economy in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. Russian production following the EU ban and price cap adds uncertainty with Russian exports expected to fall next year.

  • The EIA raised the forecast for 2023 global oil inventories in the December Short-Term Energy Outlook release yesterday. They increased the outlook by 0.2mbbls after expecting a drop of 0.3mbbls in the November release. They expect inventories of 2.82bn barrels at end of 2023, up from its November forecast of 2.75bn barrels.
  • The report raised the estimate of US 2023 oil production to 12.34mbpd, up from 12.31mbpd last month.
  • Refinery utilization is forecast to remain near its five-year average through 2023. Distillate margins are expected to fall due to a slight contraction in the US economy and refinery maximization of distillate fuel production.

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