EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Draw Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 GMT) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to show a small draw of -2.10mbbls for the week ending 8 December according to a Bloomberg survey. US crude stocks showed a larger than expected draw last week driven by an increase in refinery runs and drop in production from record levels. Exports showed an unexpected drop on the week, but high uncertainty surrounded the data with a large unaccounted oil adjustment figure. US exports are expected to be supported as traders look to destock to reduce tax obligations before the end of the year with strong supplies to Europe. Cushing stocks are expected to rise again this week to help support the near term contango in the WTI curve.
• US refinery utilisation has seen a steady rise in the last month as facilities have returned from maintenance. Utilisation is expected to rise again by 0.47% according to a Bloomberg survey after reaching the highest since mid-September at 90.5% last week.
• Total US gasoline stocks are this week expected to show a build of +1.75mbpd and distillates a small draw of -0.23mbpd according to a Bloomberg survey. Four-week US distillates demand fell again last week to add downward pressure to crack spreads. Distillates consumption was once again below the seasonal five-year range and following the drop in demand seen this time last year. Distillates stocks rose in data last week assisted by a drop in exports although remain at seasonal lows despite higher production. The rate of US diesel exports to Europe has however more than doubled from Nov to reached 437kbpd so far this month and on track for a new record according to Kpler, amid Panama Canal delays and efforts to minimize year end inventories.
• Gasoline four-week implied demand last week fell 240kbpd below the seasonal five-year average to help boost stocks more than expected with the largest gains on the Gulf Coast and East Coast. Gasoline demand has fallen nearly 0.5mbpd over the last three weeks and is close to levels seen this time last year. US gasoline demand in week to Dec 8 fell to the second lowest weekly level since early 2023 and 1.0% below the previous four-week average according to GasBuddy. US gasoline imports from Europe fell by 71% in week to Dec 7 to the lowest level since early October 2020 to 75kbpd and compared to an average of 283kbpd so far this year.
• The API data released last night showed a crude draw of -2.3mbbls and another build at Cushing of +1.4mbbls. Gasoline inventories showed a big build of +5.8bbls and distillates a build of +0.276mbbls.