EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Small Product Draws and Unchanged Crude Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 GMT) today.

• Crude inventories are expecting a very small build of just +0.02mbbls for the week ending 24 November according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude inventories last week rose 8.7mbbls to the highest since July supported by a slight dip in exports and higher imports while production held up at record levels again. Cushing stocks have regained ground back to the lower end of the five-year range although API data suggests a drop again this week.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to show a draw of -0.745mbpd and distillates a draw of -1.05mbpd in the week according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks unexpectedly built last week with a drop in implied demand to halt the recovery seen over the previous few weeks. US gasoline stocks are only just below the seasonal five-year average and boosted by the return of refineries from maintenance as diesel and jet fuel continues to support refinery runs despite low gasoline margins. US refinery outages have fallen significantly from the peak in mid-October, although EIA data last week showed overall US rates of 87% are still below the 9-year average of around 90%. Utilization in this week’s report is expected to increase again by 0.98% to 88% according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Four-week average gasoline demand has dipped in recent weeks after seeing a steady rise during October. US weekly gasoline demand in the week to Nov 25 fell 2.6% to the lowest level since late-January and is 3.3% below the four-week average, according to GasBuddy. US gasoline prices have been falling for 60 consecutive days and the longest streak of declines for more than a year, with the average retail price at $3.25/gal. Arrivals of European gasoline into the US fell by 40% on the week to the lowest level since April at 90k b/d. US imports of European gasoline have averaged 287k b/d in 2023 to date.
• Distillate stocks fell to the lowest since May 2022 last week despite an increase in production driven by a drop in imports and slightly higher exports. Four-week implied demand was unchanged on the week and therefore still near the five year range lows.
• The API data released last night showed a crude draw of -0.817mbbls and a draw of -0.465mbbls at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of -0.898bbls and distillates a build of +2.8mbbls.