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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessEIA Preview:
EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 11:00 EST (16:00 BST) today
• The EIA data is expected to show a 1.1mbbl draw in crude inventories for the week ended Fri 27th May. Crude and Cushing stocks continue to slide with crude 4% below bottom on 5-year range.
• High crude exports continue with the pull from Europe to replace Russian barrels as the WTI-Brent spread averaged around 3.5$/bbl last week. The EU ban on Russian oil has pushed Brent up versus WTI and widened the spread from around-3$/bbl back out to -3.75$/bbl
• Crude imports fell last week despite a large increase in deliveries from Saudi Arabia. Production shows no signs of increasing and is still not following the rise in oil rig count. The rig count did show a slight dip last week but remains up by nearly 20% since the start of the year.
• Withdrawals from strategic reserves will continue at approximately 1mbbls per day in line with US commitments. SPR inventory levels are now the lowest since 1987.
• Refiners are running near max and the expectation this week is for that to continue with an increase of 0.22%. Refining margins remain high despite a pullback in prices in the second half of May. The US 321 crack spread is back over 50$/bbl. Gulf coast refining was at 97.4% last week and East coast at 97% as refiners try to keep up with demand with low inventories, low imports, and high exports.
• Gasoline demand has been resilient despite high pump prices but did show a slight dip last week. The US driving season has started this week and is likely to be strong going forward but that won’t necessarily be reflected until next week’s data. AAA were expecting 39.2m people to travel over the holiday weekend, up 8.3% from 2021 and level with 2017.
• A survey showed that gasoline is expected to draw by -0.74mbbls and distillates by -0.46mbbls adding to the bullish pressure on the refined product markets.
• The API data released last night showed:
Crude: -1.181 MM
Cushing: +0.177 MM
Gasoline: -0.256 MM
Distillate: +0.858 MM
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.