EIA Weekly Oil Inventory Preview

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 EST (15:30 BST) today

• A survey estimates a 1.47mbbl build in crude inventories for the week ended Fri 13th May. US exports of crude and products have exceeded imports for 9 weeks as demand from Europe impacts supplies.
• The refinery run rate has dipped in recent weeks due to maintenance and feedstock disruptions. With margins so high refiners are working hard to produce as much gasoline and diesel as possible. The refinery run rate is expected to increase again this week by 0.5% to 90.5%, especially on the West Coast where runs are only at 82.3%. The 321 crack spread reached a high of 56.84$/bbl last week.
• The market will watch gasoline demand for signs that high prices are having an impact on consumption. Last week saw the 4-week moving average fall for the first time in three weeks. Normally demand would be increasing as we head towards the US driving season. Gasoline and diesel inventories are below the bottom of the 5-year range. Stocks in NY harbour delivery area fell last week as they are dependent on European imports. PADD 1B gasoline stocks are the lowest since 2017. Gasoline is expected to draw by -0.5mbbls and distillates by -0.24mbbls.
• The API data released last night showed a draw in crude of -2.4mbbls build, a 5.1mbbl draw in gasoline and a +1.1mbbls build in distillates.
• The Cushing withdrawal last week has driven the WTI-Brent spread from -4 to -2$/bbl. If the EIA data agrees with the big 3.1m draw from API last night, then this spread could close even further.
• SPR withdrawals are expected continue at a similar rate to last week as the US continues their release to help ease tight global markets.