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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Ipsos has published analysis of its election model indicating that former President Donald Trump is slightly favoured to win a presidential election matchup with President Biden, but cautions that Trump's frontrunner status may be less pronounced than the prevailing wisdom suggests.
- Ipsos: "There is a growing consensus among pundits and the business elite that Trump is the odds-on favorite. We recommend heighted caution for such an assessment. At this juncture, the election outcome is highly uncertain."
- Ipsos notes: "Today, despite significant challenges, Donald Trump out-performs Biden for the 2024 presidential election. Of our three election models, two of them point to Trump as the favored winner."
- However, Ipsos notes that the economy as a determining factor may change: "Macro indicators might say the economy is going well, but people take longer to shake off shocks. That is possibly the case today. Biden, in particular, has suffered significantly from inflation. Inflation has decreased, but key constituencies for Biden – younger Americans, the less affluent, and minorities – have outsized exposure to its pinch. Keep an eye on the second quarter—this is historically the make-or-break month for an election in November."
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Model
Source: Ipsos
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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