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Election Too Close To Call; Finishing 1st Important For Coalition Talks

FINLAND

Some of the final opinion polling ahead of the 2 April legislative election shows a race that is too close to call, with PM Sanna Marin's centre-left Social Democrats (SDP), the centre-right National Coalition Party, and the right-wing nationalist Finns Party (PS) all within the margin of error of one another with around 18-20% support each. The party winning a plurality is set to be afforded the initial mandate to seek to form a governing coalition, making every vote count.

  • The identity of the party leading initial negotiations could prove key for the future direction of Finnish gov't policy.
    • If it is the National Coalition Party then the direction could swing either way, as the party could seek a right-leaning coalition with the Finns or a cross-spectrum 'grand coalition' with the SDP and Centre Party.
    • If it is the Finns, the gov't will almost certainly shift sharply to the right as the only major party willing to work with it would be the National Coalition Party.
    • If it is the Social Democrats than Marin could seek to re-form the incumbent 5-party left-leaning coalition.
  • For more information please see ourFinland Election Preview.
Chart 1. Finland General Election Opinion Polling, % and 2-Poll Moving Average

Source: Taloustutkimus, Kantar Public, Kantar TNS, MNI. Vas-Left Alliance, SDP-Social Democrats, Vihr-Green League, SFP/RKP-Swedish People's Party, Kesk-Centre Party, Liik-Movement Now, KD-Christian Democrats, Kok-National Coalition Party, PS-Finns Party

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