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Electoral College On Knife-Edge Despite Post-Debate Bounce For Harris

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Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be getting a sustained polling bounce following the presidential debate with former President Donald Trump, which she was widely judged to have won.

  • Analyst Nate Silver notes: “Harris’s lead in national polls is up to 2.9 points, improved from 2.2 points before last week’s debate. There’s been a high volume of national polling, so this is pretty clearly some sort of debate bounce.”
  • Silver adds that if the positive polling trend continues for Harris, he expects his election forecast model, which has been bullish on Trump, will begin to converge back to a 50-50 race.
  • Despite Harris’ lead in the national polling average, the Electoral College race remains on a knife-edge. In fact, Trump’s advantage in several key swing states appears to be expanding his Electoral College advantage slightly.
  • Silver’s forecast model projects nearly a 25% implied probability that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the White House, as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
  • Based on most projections of Trump's likely Electoral College advantage, Harris may need to win the popular vote by at least three percentage points to carry the Electoral College.

Figure 1: Nate Silver 2024 Presidential Election Forecast Model

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Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be getting a sustained polling bounce following the presidential debate with former President Donald Trump, which she was widely judged to have won.

  • Analyst Nate Silver notes: “Harris’s lead in national polls is up to 2.9 points, improved from 2.2 points before last week’s debate. There’s been a high volume of national polling, so this is pretty clearly some sort of debate bounce.”
  • Silver adds that if the positive polling trend continues for Harris, he expects his election forecast model, which has been bullish on Trump, will begin to converge back to a 50-50 race.
  • Despite Harris’ lead in the national polling average, the Electoral College race remains on a knife-edge. In fact, Trump’s advantage in several key swing states appears to be expanding his Electoral College advantage slightly.
  • Silver’s forecast model projects nearly a 25% implied probability that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the White House, as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
  • Based on most projections of Trump's likely Electoral College advantage, Harris may need to win the popular vote by at least three percentage points to carry the Electoral College.

Figure 1: Nate Silver 2024 Presidential Election Forecast Model

Keep reading...Show less