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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ITALY
The 1,007 electors deciding on the identity of Italy's next president failed to reach a majority verdict in the fourth round of voting, with the contest going into a fifth round tomorrow (28 Jan).
- Fourth round: Sergio Mattarella: 166, Antonino Di Matteo: 56, Others: 52, Blank/Null/Abstain: 707, Absent: 28.
- An MNI Policy article published on 26 January carries the story that backers of PM Mario Draghi remain confident that a backroom deal will be reached to install him as president (see 'MNI: Draghi Backers Confident As President Race Nears Climax').
- With the contest going beyond three rounds of voting, a winning candidate now only requires a majority of electors' support, rather than the two-thirds majority previously required.
- Bettors continue to see Draghi as favourite for the presidency, with a 40.7% implied probability of winning. Senator Pier Ferdinando Casini, previously part of the now-defunct Christian Democracy, has risen to become second-favourite with a 23.3% implied probability of winning.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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