Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- According to a letter signed by former NBP governors Leszek Balcerowicz, Marek Belka and Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz and 13 ex-MPC members, the central bank cannot delay actions to reverse a surge in inflation as it would be a breach of the NBP primary goal, which is maintaining price stability.
- Last week, economic data showed that inflationary pressures continue to increase in Poland with September CPI inflation coming in higher than expected at 5.8% (vs. 5.5% exp.), up from 5.5% the previous month.
- The rise in inflationary pressures has led to a surge in volatility in the bond market, with the 10Y yield currently trading at its highest level since March 2020.
- It seems most likely that the NBP is going to raise rates earlier than expected; market is pricing in a first move at the November meeting as inflation forecasts are going to be reviewed to the upside.
- At this stage, there are three policymakers (Hardt, Gatnar and Zubelewicz) voting for an 'imminent' rate hike as they mentioned several times that inflation is now demand-driven in Poland and a gradual tightening could ease the inflationary pressures.
- The NBP is expected to leave its policy rate steady at 0.1% on Wednesday (Oct 6), but then could start a tightening cycle in its November meeting with a first 15bps hike.
- With the FRA 3Mx6M currently trading at 45bps above the Wibor 3M, the market is currently pricing in up to three 15bps by January (see chart).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok