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Empire Manufacturing 6-Month Outlook Still Much Stronger Than Current

US DATA
  • The Empire manufacturing survey was slightly stronger than expected in October at -4.6 (cons -6), a modest 6.5pt decline for a series with a standard deviation of monthly moves since 2021 of 22.
  • It’s at a level similar to that implied by the September ISM mfg survey after it surprisingly increased from 47.6 to 49.0 back on Oct 2.
  • Notably, a smaller decline in the Empire six-months ahead outlook from 26.3 to 23.1 kept it close to levels seen shortly before the pandemic and clearly elevated relative to current conditions – see chart. At the margin it’s a release that can support those arguing for at least a softer landing view.

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