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Empire Manufacturing Sees Even Greater Volatility In January

US DATA
  • The Empire manufacturing survey surprisingly slumped 29pts to -43.7, the lowest since the depths of the pandemic in Apr/May'20 and lower than anything seen in 2008/09.
  • The decline was big even by its standards. It’s an extremely noisy series, with a standard deviation for the monthly change of 25.6pts since 2022, although it’s rare to get back-to-back large declines after the -23.6pts drop in Dec.
  • "The new orders index fell thirty-eight points to -49.4, and the shipments index fell twenty-five points to -31.3, pointing to a large decline in orders and shipments."
  • However, caveating this was the six-month ahead outlook meanwhile rising 6.7pts to 18.8, its highest since October.

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