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Empire Mfg Survey Continues Broad Trend Lower

  • The Empire Mfg survey was a little weaker than expected in October as it fell from -1.5 to -9.1 (cons -4.3), continuing its broad-trend lower but within a particularly volatile range, off a low of -31 in Aug.
  • It’s the first of the regional Fed activity indexes for October but recall that they have been undershooting ISM Mfg for a few months now, with the MNI Chicago PMI most recently giving a better indication of the timing of the latest step down in activity (next published Oct 31) – charts below.
  • Forward-looking: 6-mth General Business Conditions and New Orders ticked lower though Capex looked strong.
  • Prices: Prices received basically flat but prices paid bounced 9pts after falling notably from highs through 2H21/1H22. That said, forward expectations for both prices and employment indicators were pretty flat.

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