Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
April employment data came in weaker than expected with the number of jobs falling 4.3k, driven by full-time, and the unemployment rate rising to 3.7% with the participation rate down 0.1pp to 66.7%. But March was revised up to an even stronger 61.1k from 53k due to a 10k increase in full-time jobs. Hours worked are rising strongly indicating that labour shortages are still being filled by longer hours. After some concerning elements in the Q1 WPI data, the softer April labour market release potentially gives the RBA the reason it needs to wait and see at the June meeting, since one month doesn’t make a trend.
- The rise in the unemployment rate looks worse than it is. It was 3.54% in March (a high 3.5%) and 3.66% in April (a low 3.7%), thus April saw a 0.12pp rise, driven by a 4k drop in the number of jobs with an 18k increase in the number of unemployed.
- Job growth has averaged 28.1k/mth this year after the post-pandemic impacted 40.2k in 2022. Employment growth eased to 2.9% y/y (above 2019’s 2.3%) but it is showing rising 3-month momentum, especially in the full-time sector. FT fell 27.2k after an upwardly revised +82.5k in March, while part-time rose 22.9k after falling 21.4k.
- Hours worked rose 2.6% m/m to be up 7.4% y/y, driven by fewer people taking time off at Easter (55% compared to 60% in 2015), which the ABS says may be because their workplaces were short staffed given elevated vacancies.
- The underemployment rate fell 0.1pp to 6.1% and underutilisation rose 0.1pp to 9.8%. Both remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
- The population aged +15 years rose another 0.2% m/m to be up 2.4% y/y, to be the fastest annual growth rate since December 2008. The labour force continues to grow solidly at 2.7% y/y.
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Australia population growth y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.