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Employment Median Forecast Well Below Recent Trend

AUSTRALIA

Employment data for December are released on Thursday and are likely to be watched closely given the importance that they continue to show signs of easing and its strength over the previous two months. The RBA also monitors the underemployment and youth unemployment rates. Bloomberg consensus expects job gains of 15k after a stronger-than-forecast 61.5k in November and for the unemployment rate to be stable at 3.9%.

  • While there could be some payback for the strong October/November data in December, a result around consensus’ 15k forecast would be less than half the 3-, 6-month and 2023 averages.
  • Forecasts are in a range from +35k to -10k. The big four domestic banks’ forecasts are all above consensus with Westpac at the upper end with 35k, then NAB +30k, followed by ANZ and CBA at +20k.
  • The unemployment rate forecasts are between 3.7% and 4.0% with most estimates 3.8-3.9%. ANZ, NAB and Westpac are all projecting a 0.1pp drop to 3.8% while CBA is at 3.9%.
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