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Employment Report – 0830ET

CANADA
  • Employment lands at 0830ET today after wisely being pulled forward a day.
  • Consensus is for a fairly typical 7.5k in March after February’s surprise 21.8k (cons 10k) and a huge beat of 150k in Jan (cons 15k). It does however mask a relatively wide range from -14k to +40k, having last seen a decline in Aug.
  • The u/e rate is seen nudging up a tenth to 5.1% although it would take very little from 5.049%. It would still be close to its series low of 4.9% from July.
  • Wage growth is seen edging a tenth higher to 5.5% Y/Y to its highest since Jan’21, with TD seeing base effects playing a small role.

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